A Gravity-Based Probability Model for Commuting Patterns in Friuli Venezia Giulia

In this thesis, commuting in the Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) region will be studied employing a gravity approach of spatial interaction, focusing in particular on commuting behavior that come from the main municipalities of FVG. The aim of the analysis is to evaluate the ability of a simple gravity model constrained in terms of production to successfully estimate commuting patterns in a polycentric region with medium-sized cities. The size of the municipalities is used as a proxy for both production and attraction of commuting, while the distance between the municipalities is calculated employing the regional road network via GIS network analysis. The methodology puts together demographic information with geographical information to compute distance matrices, elementary interaction terms, and relative attractivity indices. Therefore, the maps show the relevance of major urban agglomerations such as Trieste, Udine, Gorizia, and Pordenone for the formation of regional mobility patterns, as well as the decay effects for commuter distribution.