Bank mergers and acquisitions in Europe: a KPI analysis of value creation and performance, with insights from the MPS-Mediobanca case

This thesis investigates the role of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in value creation within the European banking sector, focusing specifically on the 2025 stock-for-stock Public Exchange Offer between Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) and Mediobanca. The study examines how pricing discipline, governance frameworks, and regulatory constraints shape the realization of announced synergies and measurable post-deal outcomes. Using an integrated analytical framework that combines Industrial Organization (IO) Theory and the Resource-Based View (RBV), this research identifies key performance indicators (KPIs) that distinguish successful M&A transactions in banking. The Italian market, with its fragmentation and ongoing digital transformation, offers a compelling case study. Through pre- and post-deal evaluations, including scenario analysis, this thesis highlights the mechanisms by which European banking M&As drive operational efficiencies, market competitiveness, and enhanced capital accessibility. The MPS-Mediobanca case is analyzed in-depth, providing insights into potential risks and synergies related to integration, governance, and stakeholder impacts. This research contributes to academic literature by offering a robust, testable framework to predict the financial and strategic success of banking M&As, with practical applications for investors, policymakers, and financial institutions.