Assessing Thermal Resilience of Residential Façade Typologies Under Climate Change Using the Façade Resilience Index: A Comparative Simulation Study Across Italy, Germany, and Norway

Climate change is increasing heatwaves in Europe, exposing residential buildings to overheating risks. Façades play a central role in buffering indoor spaces. This thesis develops the Façade Resilience Index (FRI), combining resistance, robustness, and recovery, to assess nine representative residential façade typologies in Italy, Germany, and Norway. Typologies from the TABULA database cover pre-retrofit, mid-century, and post-retrofit designs, capturing historical and modern practices. Dynamic simulations in DesignBuilder (EnergyPlus) used weather files for 2020, 2050, and 2080 under passive and active cooling scenarios. Six indicators—Thermal Autonomy, Indoor Overheating Degree, Cooling Load, Maximum Indoor Temperature, Time Above Threshold, and Recovery Time—were normalized and aggregated into the FRI. Correlation analyses verified relationships with façade properties (U-value, R-value, conductivity, thickness, infiltration, WWR). Results show climate-dependent trends: Italian façades decline most under passive conditions (up to 40% by 2080), German typologies show moderate resilience, and Norwegian façades maintain high passive performance though heavily insulated retrofits can trap heat. Cooling improves resilience but increases energy dependence, highlighting passive strategies as sustainable. Lower U-values, improved airtightness, higher thermal mass, and optimized windows enhance FRI outcomes. This framework enables cross-climatic comparison, informs renovation priorities, and supports climate-adaptive building codes, showing that climate-aligned façade retrofits are more effective for long-term thermal resilience than relying on energy-intensive cooling systems.