Decision-Making in Complex Systems Through Simulation Modeling: a Vaccine Supply Chain Case Study

The dissertation in question focuses on the implementation of a simulation model developed for a project of the company Engineering Ingegneria Informatica: a vaccine supply chain. The thesis highlights how nowadays tackling complex problems has become one of the main challenges for different types of industries. Simulation-based tools are valuable solutions to deal with complex systems, especially when traditional methodologies fail to support company in their decision-making processes. By modeling and replicating real-world system characteristics and behaviors, simulation models enable what-if analysis in free-risk environments. These capabilities allow companies to anticipate potential disruptive events, identify critical problems, and make informed corrective decisions. The simulation-based tool of the case study was developed with the AnyLogic software, a leading simulation modeling software for business application, used worldwide by over 40% of Fortune 100 companies. It supports the three foundational simulation methodologies: agent-based, discrete event, and system dynamics. The developed tool offered the company the ability to simulate different supply chain configurations and scenarios. Its outputs provided a granular level of details, till to the single batch production, across a 10-year simulation horizon. This allowed decision-makers to perform in-depth analyses and effectively optimize strategic plans.