Key factors regulating the development of energy transition and repercussions on supply, demand and decarbonization: a causal loop diagram based on Italian dynamics

International policy seeks a transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system based on renewable energy and end-use electrification. Despite energy transition being extensively covered in literature, few studies address the topic considering cause-effect multisectoral interdependency. This work fills this literature gap and develops a logical-conceptual model of the energy transition by means of a system dynamics approach; in particular, the causal loop diagram representation (CLD) is used as a modelling technique. The model, based on an extensive literature review in the main sources on the subject (e.g., TERNA, IEA, IRENA), provides an overview of the energy transition, considering technical, socio-political, economic and environmental issues, focusing on the Italian energy panorama. The system is divided into two main functional domains: energy production and energy consumption. Within the two domains, 22 variables and one constant were identified and the causal relationships between them were explored. Some relevant feedback mechanisms emerged, one of which, seen in the "Limits to Growth" archetype, underlies the behaviour of the system. Namely, it was found that the diffusion of renewables triggers a self-reinforcing mechanism due to advances in the sector, leading to an acceleration in renewable capacity that is successively slowed down by a balancing mechanism, triggered by the gradual reaching of a limit. A similar mechanism is conceivable for the consumption domain, driven by electrification. Six exogenous variables were identified, some of which can be addressed as leverage points. The model was compared with related studies, and several mechanisms were confirmed. Finally, the work was discussed with 7 experts to collect comments, opinions, and criticism. Further investigation of the system should be performed quantitatively by implementing mathematical simulations in the model.