Assessing model credibility of CT-Based finite element model to predict bone strength

Osteoporosis is one of the major causes of mortality among the elderly. Nowadays, areal bone mineral density (aBMD) is used as diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis; however, this is a moderate predictor of the femur fracture risk and does not capture the effect of some anatomical and physiological properties on the bone strength estimation. Data from past research suggest that most fragility femur fractures occur in patients with aBMD values outside the pathological range. Subject-specific finite element models derived from computed tomography data are considered better tools to non-invasively assess hip fracture risk. In particular, the Bologna Biomechanical Computed Tomography (BBCT) is an In Silico methodology that uses a subject specific FE model to predict bone strength. Different studies demonstrated that the modeling pipeline can increase predictive accuracy of osteoporosis detection and assess the efficacy of new antiresorptive drugs. However, one critical aspect that must be properly addressed before using the technology in the clinical practice, is the assessment of the model credibility. The aim of this study was to define and perform verification and uncertainty quantification analyses on the BBCT methodology following the risk-based credibility assessment framework recently proposed in the VV-40 standard. The analyses focused on the main verification tests used in computational solid mechanics: force and moment equilibrium check, mesh convergence analyses, mesh quality metrics study, evaluation of the uncertainties associated to the definition of the boundary conditions and material properties mapping. Results of these analyses showed that the FE model is correctly implemented and solved. The operation that mostly affect the model results is the material properties mapping step. This work represents an important step that, together with the ongoing clinical validation activities, will contribute to demonstrate the credibility of the BBCT methodology.