Multiphase flow in porous media: meta-modeling techniques for sensitivity analysis and risk assessment

Lenci, Alessandro (2016) Multiphase flow in porous media: meta-modeling techniques for sensitivity analysis and risk assessment. [Laurea magistrale], Università di Bologna, Corso di Studio in Civil engineering [LM-DM270], Documento full-text non disponibile
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One of the biggest challenges that contaminant hydrogeology is facing, is how to adequately address the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Uncertainty arise from multiple sources, such as: interpretative error, calibration accuracy, parameter sensitivity and variability. This critical issue needs to be properly addressed in order to support environmental decision-making processes. In this study, we perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) on a contaminant transport model for the assessment of hydrocarbon concentration in groundwater. We provide a quantification of the environmental impact and, given the incomplete knowledge of hydrogeological parameters, we evaluate which are the most influential, requiring greater accuracy in the calibration process. Parameters are treated as random variables and a variance-based GSA is performed in a optimized numerical Monte Carlo framework. The Sobol indices are adopted as sensitivity measures and they are computed by employing meta-models to characterize the migration process, while reducing the computational cost of the analysis. The proposed methodology allows us to: extend the number of Monte Carlo iterations, identify the influence of uncertain parameters and lead to considerable saving computational time obtaining an acceptable accuracy.

Tipologia del documento
Tesi di laurea (Laurea magistrale)
Autore della tesi
Lenci, Alessandro
Relatore della tesi
Correlatore della tesi
Corso di studio
Ordinamento Cds
Parole chiave
LNAPL,groundwater,risk assessment,global sensitivity analysis,meta-models,multiphase flow
Data di discussione della Tesi
7 Ottobre 2016

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