From Cooperative Security to Systemic Rivalry? The Evolution and Interactor Coherence of the Weimar Triangle's Strategic Narrative, 2014-2026

This thesis examines how and to what extent the collective strategic narrative articulated through the Weimar Triangle changed between 2014–2021 and the period following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, while assessing its congruence with official French, German and Polish strategic discourse. Informed by the Strategic Narrative framework developed by Miskimmon, O’Loughlin and Roselle, the study conducts a qualitative analysis of Weimar Triangle statements alongside purposively selected national-level discourse. In the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the analysis finds that the Weimar Triangle narrates an international system characterized by systemic rivalry. European security is constructed as increasingly indivisible, linking the security of the EU and its member states to the fate of Ukraine. At the same time, faced with a changing transatlantic relationship, the Weimar Triangle assigns Europe greater responsibility for its own security and increasingly constructs it as a security actor. Against this background, the Weimar Triangle adopts a geopolitical lens on three interconnected issue narratives: sustained support for Ukraine, increased European military readiness, and enlargement as a geopolitical imperative. The comparison with national strategic discourse reveals partial interactor coherence. Convergence is strongest regarding assessments of the transformed security environment and the strategic objectives derived from them, but decreases when these objectives are translated into questions of implementation. While substantial alignment can therefore be identified at the systemic level, the findings reveal greater difficulty in coherently articulating how collectively defined objectives should be translated into action. Interactor coherence is most substantial regarding EU enlargement, suggesting that this issue may provide the Weimar Triangle with an opportunity to contribute to sustaining enlargement momentum.