Strategic Corruption in Space

This study examines strategic corruption in outer space, with a particular focus on its risks for Europe, employing a foresight methodological framework. Outer space has already emerged as a political and commercial arena of human competition, with increasingly favourable prospects for actors with the means of power and the will to exercise it. This study contributes to the existing literature by examining how states may engage in strategic corruption involving space-based technologies to advance geopolitical and national interests. It explores intersections between international relations and space technologies and science, situating this interdisciplinary analysis within the field of future studies. As a foresight study, the thesis adopts a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and combines qualitative and participatory methods in a three-step process. The results indicate a significant likelihood that space-based technologies could be used for strategic corruption, posing a potential threat to Europe’s security by 2040. Experts agreed that geoengineering, In-Space Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing, On-Orbit Servicing, and Space Debris Removal technologies could be misused to serve foreign policy goals, but differed on their timing and modes of application. Findings underscore the urgency for Europe to increase vigilance and preparedness against threats from outer space infrastructure and the strategies used by other states to gain advantages. This involves monitoring existing patterns in politics, defence, the space sector, and related industries and networks that may indicate strategic corruption. This research contributes to anti-corruption studies by using foresight tools to explore possible future developments of corruption forms, and at the same time linking space science and technologies to international relations, broadening the spectrum and highlighting intersections. Moreover, the thesis identifies potential threats to Europe and incentivises action.