Hydraulic Infrastructure Under a Changing Climate: From Hydrological Intensification to Climate-Induced Structural Loads and Adaptation Strategies

Climate change is altering the hydrological cycle by increasing temperatures, modifying precipitation patterns, and intensifying extreme rainfall events. These changes challenge the traditional assumption of stationarity, which has long been used in the design and assessment of hydraulic infrastructure. As a result, historical hydrological records alone are no longer sufficient to evaluate the long-term performance and safety of dams and other hydraulic structures. This dissertation investigates how climate change affects catchment hydrology and how these changes may influence the hydraulic loads acting on infrastructure. The study first reviews the physical mechanisms driving hydrological intensification, including the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, Super-Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, moisture convergence, and rain-on-snow events. The HBV-Light hydrological model was then calibrated for the Adige River Basin in northern Italy using observed meteorological and discharge data, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.568. The calibrated model was used to simulate +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios, together with a moisture convergence experiment. The results showed that increasing climatic forcing produces a non-linear hydrological response, while concentrated rainfall events generate significantly higher peak discharges than the same rainfall distributed over several days. The study also examines how these hydrological changes increase climate-induced loads on dams, including hydrostatic and hydrodynamic pressures, uplift forces, scour, debris impacts, and thermal stresses. Finally, adaptation and resilience strategies are reviewed to improve the long-term performance of hydraulic infrastructure. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of combining climate science, hydrological modelling, and structural engineering to support more resilient infrastructure design under future climate conditions.