The second Trump administration and EU defence integration

This dissertation examines the impact of Donald Trump’s second administration on the integration of the European Union in security and defence policy. It addresses the research question of whether and to what extent the re-election of Donald Trump has contributed to EU-level defence integration. By using a qualitative process-tracing methodology, the analysis draws on European Council summit conclusions, strategic documents, official press conferences, policy statements, interviews and relevant news coverage. The findings reveal an increasing commitment among EU member states toward deeper defence integration. Key policy documents, including the White Paper on Defence and the ReArm Europe plan, emphasise the need to raise defence spending and strengthen EU’s strategic autonomy in security and defence. While Russia’s war against Ukraine remains a central catalyst for these developments, the analysis suggests that the perceived uncertainty surrounding the US security guarantees under Trump’s second administration has also played a significant role in the integration process. Overall, the dissertation argues that EU defence integration is driven by a combination of external security threats and political dynamics, with Trump’s return into office being an additional catalyst, accelerating the defence integration trends.