Techno‑economic assessment of e‑fuels production from green hydrogen: chemical process and fossil fuel benchmarking in the italian context toward 2050

Hydrogen has been widely considered as a strategic solution for enabling the energy transition toward Net Zero by 2050. Hydrogen is versatile and can be used in its pure form, as an energy carrier or raw material, or blended with other fuels such as natural gas. However, its physical properties pose new challenges in storage and transportation, promoting the evaluation of alternative chemical routes, such as e-fuels. This work focuses on studying the production processes of different e-fuels (i.e., methanol, methane, FT hydrocarbons, and ammonia) obtained from a constant green hydrogen supply representative of a possible national market of 20 t/day, to develop an economic analysis and a feasibility study. Starting from existing production processes, the streams and heat duty are quantified, allowing for preliminary design of the main equipment. The economic analyses are carried out considering different costs of hydrogen, ranging from the current value of the grey to green hydrogen, to identify the most cost-effective option. More specifically, the estimation of Capex, Opex, Levelized Cost of Production (LCOP) and Discounted Cash Flow analysis (DCF) are conducted for each process. The required fuel costs for convenient solutions are calculated assuming three different time spans, namely 10, 20, and 30 years. The results indicate that the cost of hydrogen represents one of the most influential input parameters. Indeed, the production of e-fuels from green hydrogen results in final e-fuel prices that are too high to be market-competitive at the current state, while the possible achievement of costs comparable to the current grey hydrogen would significantly reduce production costs. Regardless of the time span and hydrogen costs, ammonia and methane are found to be the most promising alternatives under the investigated conditions. Nonetheless further development, incentives and policy support are needed to make these processes, albeit promising, truly competitive.