Italy and the liberal paradox of migration governance (2015-2025)

Liberal democracies depend on migration economically while facing strong political pressure to restrict it. This tension, often described as the liberal paradox of migration, cannot be fully resolved and is instead managed through changing policy tools and political narratives. Italy offers an important case for studying this problem, as it has long been one of Europe’s main points of arrival for sea migration across the Central Mediterranean. This thesis examines how four Italian Interior Ministers: Marco Minniti, Matteo Salvini, Luciana Lamorgese, and Matteo Piantedosi, responded to this tension between 2015 and 2025. It uses qualitative process tracing to reconstruct the development of migration policy across successive governments, drawing on ministerial speeches, parliamentary debates, legal measures, and European Union policy documents. The thesis finds that, despite major ideological differences between governments, Italian migration governance showed a strong degree of continuity. Different ministers relied on different instruments, but they repeatedly justified restrictive policies in humanitarian terms. The thesis describes this pattern as humanitarian deterrence: a form of migration governance in which exclusion is presented as protection and enforcement as responsibility. Finally, using Marsh and McConnell’s framework, the study argues that these policies endured not because they clearly solved the problems they targeted, but because they delivered political and procedural advantages even when their practical results remained disputed. The thesis concludes that humanitarian deterrence is one way in which the liberal paradox is managed in practice. More broadly, it raises questions about democratic accountability when visible action and claims of control matter more than policy effectiveness.