Glaude, Robin Francoise
(2020)

*Applicability of Uncertainty analysis to groundwater environmental risks through Fault Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo simulations.*
[Laurea magistrale], Università di Bologna, Corso di Studio in

Ingegneria per l'ambiente e il territorio [LM-DM270], Documento full-text non disponibile

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## Abstract

The Anthropocene epoch initiated by human in
uence on its Earth system (biosphere,
hydrosphere, ...) leads to an irreversible change: Global warming. Climate
change alters all existing natural processes, including the ones related to groundwater.
The present paper aims to study the occurrence's probability of two particular
groundwater risks: the generation of thermokarst lakes in permafrost environment
and its subsequent thermal consequences in the surroundings as well as seawater
intrusion inducing saltwater contamination in pumping wells. These processes are
dependent of physical parameters to which is attached uncertainty. Consequently,
two uncertainty analysis methods have been applied to determine the probability
of occurence of these undesired events: Fault Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation.
Beside the rough approximation performed to evaluate the probability of
thermokarst lake occurence (48%) and of talik development under these latter (73%)
by means of fault tree analysis, these high failure probabilities translate the urge to
slow down global warming due to the irreversible effect on permafrost environment,
meaning its thawing and releasing of trapped methane in the atmosphere. On the
other hand, Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to compare dfferent scenarii
related to seawater intrusion in Akrotiri aquifer in Cyprus. The results once
again translate the disastrous effect of climate change regarding the probability of
occurence of these unwanted events. Indeed, a failure probability around 6 times
greater (43%) is observed in the climate change scenario with respect to the reference
scenario (7%).
Uncertainty analysis is good methodology to apply to environmental concerns
to quantify the occurence's probability of these undesired events. This would urge
public authorities to perform decision making in order to avoid or reduce the failure's
probability of these groundwater issues that have irreversible consequences.

Abstract

The Anthropocene epoch initiated by human in
uence on its Earth system (biosphere,
hydrosphere, ...) leads to an irreversible change: Global warming. Climate
change alters all existing natural processes, including the ones related to groundwater.
The present paper aims to study the occurrence's probability of two particular
groundwater risks: the generation of thermokarst lakes in permafrost environment
and its subsequent thermal consequences in the surroundings as well as seawater
intrusion inducing saltwater contamination in pumping wells. These processes are
dependent of physical parameters to which is attached uncertainty. Consequently,
two uncertainty analysis methods have been applied to determine the probability
of occurence of these undesired events: Fault Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation.
Beside the rough approximation performed to evaluate the probability of
thermokarst lake occurence (48%) and of talik development under these latter (73%)
by means of fault tree analysis, these high failure probabilities translate the urge to
slow down global warming due to the irreversible effect on permafrost environment,
meaning its thawing and releasing of trapped methane in the atmosphere. On the
other hand, Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to compare dfferent scenarii
related to seawater intrusion in Akrotiri aquifer in Cyprus. The results once
again translate the disastrous effect of climate change regarding the probability of
occurence of these unwanted events. Indeed, a failure probability around 6 times
greater (43%) is observed in the climate change scenario with respect to the reference
scenario (7%).
Uncertainty analysis is good methodology to apply to environmental concerns
to quantify the occurence's probability of these undesired events. This would urge
public authorities to perform decision making in order to avoid or reduce the failure's
probability of these groundwater issues that have irreversible consequences.

Tipologia del documento

Tesi di laurea
(Laurea magistrale)

Autore della tesi

Glaude, Robin Francoise

Relatore della tesi

Scuola

Corso di studio

Indirizzo

Earth resources engineering

Ordinamento Cds

DM270

Parole chiave

Uncertainty Analysis,Risk,Fault Tree Analysis,Monte Carlo Simulation,Importance measures,groundwater,permafrost thawing,thermokarst lakes,taliks,seawater intrusion

Data di discussione della Tesi

21 Luglio 2020

URI

## Altri metadati

Tipologia del documento

Tesi di laurea
(NON SPECIFICATO)

Autore della tesi

Glaude, Robin Francoise

Relatore della tesi

Scuola

Corso di studio

Indirizzo

Earth resources engineering

Ordinamento Cds

DM270

Parole chiave

Uncertainty Analysis,Risk,Fault Tree Analysis,Monte Carlo Simulation,Importance measures,groundwater,permafrost thawing,thermokarst lakes,taliks,seawater intrusion

Data di discussione della Tesi

21 Luglio 2020

URI

Gestione del documento: