From the traditional verification approach to the spatial methods: a study of applicability of the SAL metric in the framework of the WMO project MesoVICT

D'Alessandro, Daniele (2016) From the traditional verification approach to the spatial methods: a study of applicability of the SAL metric in the framework of the WMO project MesoVICT. [Laurea magistrale], Università di Bologna, Corso di Studio in Fisica del sistema terra [LM-DM270], Documento ad accesso riservato.
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Abstract

Increasing in resolution of numerical weather prediction models has allowed more and more realistic forecasts of atmospheric parameters. Due to the growing variability into predicted fields the traditional verification methods are not always able to describe the model ability because they are based on a grid-point-by-grid-point matching between observation and prediction. Recently, new spatial verification methods have been developed with the aim of show the benefit associated to the high resolution forecast. Nested in among of the MesoVICT international project, the initially aim of this work is to compare the newly tecniques remarking advantages and disadvantages. First of all, the MesoVICT basic examples, represented by synthetic precipitation fields, have been examined. Giving an error evaluation in terms of structure, amplitude and localization of the precipitation fields, the SAL method has been studied more thoroughly respect to the others approaches with its implementation in the core cases of the project. The verification procedure has concerned precipitation fields over central Europe: comparisons between the forecasts performed by the 00z COSMO-2 model and the VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) have been done. The study of these cases has shown some weaknesses of the methodology examined; in particular has been highlighted the presence of a correlation between the optimal domain size and the extention of the precipitation systems. In order to increase ability of SAL, a subdivision of the original domain in three subdomains has been done and the method has been applied again. Some limits have been found in cases in which at least one of the two domains does not show precipitation. The overall results for the subdomains have been summarized on scatter plots. With the aim to identify systematic errors of the model the variability of the three parameters has been studied for each subdomain.

Abstract
Tipologia del documento
Tesi di laurea (Laurea magistrale)
Autore della tesi
D'Alessandro, Daniele
Relatore della tesi
Correlatore della tesi
Scuola
Corso di studio
Ordinamento Cds
DM270
Parole chiave
verification,MesoVICT,spatial,SAL,domain_size,applicability,spatial_method,traditional_method,threshold,smooth_parameter,SpatialVX
Data di discussione della Tesi
20 Ottobre 2016
URI

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