An informed decision-making tool to decarbonise the heating sector: comparison between centralised and decentralised heating technologies in the Holbæk municipality, Denmark

Nowadays, the growing efforts to provide a fossil-free society by 2050 are within the top priorities of European countries. Decarbonising energy-intensive sectors is the key towards a rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, the residential heating sector is one of the major contributors to CO2 emissions and therefore is facing an increasing attractiveness for low-carbon heating technologies and energy efficiency measures. In this thesis, an innovative model that combines Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and energy systems optimisation is developed. The thesis aims at providing an effective methodology to place heat demand sources through spatial analysis for Danish Municipalities. Consequently, it investigates whether a urban area is more economically suitable for district heating (DH) or individual local heat generation. We choose Holbæk Municipality as case study for the GIS part. The results show that cities and villages are the greatest sources of heat, and the heat density is higher in these areas than in the countryside. The total residential heating demand for the Municipality is estimated to be around 520 GWh/year. The optimisation cost model, then, is focused on the village of Regstrup. We assess two scenarios: an individual heating scenario where all households are equipped with individual technologies and a district heating scenario that can supply the entire city heat demand. GIS potentialities allow to retrieve necessary data to establish the length of DH network pipes. The results reveal that individual heating is less expensive compared to DH, but the latter demonstrated to be a power system integration and flexibility enabler.